Over the past few years, the Ukrainian container transportation market has faced a lot of structural, economic, political and legislative changes. For example in 2012 a law, "On Sea Ports of Ukraine," was passed, and in 2013 the State Enterprise for "The administration of the seaports of Ukraine" was created. These changes were intended to streamline and regulate processes in the field of maritime transport in Ukraine.

In cooperation with the State, the "HPC-Ukraine" company invested more than 0.5 billion dollars to build a new container terminal, which was supposed to provide a competitive advantage to the operator of an existing container terminal at the port of Odessa. However, the construction of the breakwater, which is required for the proper functioning of the container terminal, faced certain problems, and the project was postponed indefinitely.

In 2014 the "Brooklyn-Kiev Port" company acquired a third STS container crane to speed up the loading and discharging of vessels and to improve the quality of services provided.

The "Container Terminal Ilyichevsk" (CTI) company did not make large-scale investments like "HPC-Ukraine" in the past three years, but as with other terminal operators, faced growth and reduction of volume handled, due to a number of circumstances occurring in Ukraine over the past few years.

Table 1. Quarterly volumes of containers handled by terminals of Ukrainein 2012-2014 (TEU)

Terminal	Q1 2012	Q2 2012	Q3 2012	Q4 2012	Q1 2013	Q2 2013	Q3 2013	Q42013	Q1 2014	Q2 2014	Q3 2014	Q4 2014
HPC (Odessa)	66346	80560	90667	91333	91049	94053	94143	89980	74132	64439	60836	63739
BKP (Odessa)	28901	34248	39033	30814	30951	26447	39486	38595	36141	34353	40052	40838
CTI (Ilyichevsk)	53523	59615	60609	56834	51027	54207	57695	64419	60715	47375	44688	43454
TIS (Yuzhny)	4187	8818	4727	12928	7826	12168	12234	14076	13396	13234	12947	14803
TOTAL	152957	183241	195036	191909	180853	186875	203558	207070	184384	159401	158523	162834

Since 2012 the "Transinvestservice" (TIS) company has been slowly but surely increasing their volume of containers handled at its terminal, and it has good prospects for further growth: deep-water berths at TIS terminal can accommodate vessels up to 300m in length; the recent deregulation of terminal handling charge (THC) rates will allow TIS to be able to reduce them, thereby attracting additional containerized cargo traffic and increasing the volume of containers handled.

The analysis of statistical data of containers handledby terminals in Ukraine shows that throughout 2012 "HPC-Ukraine" showed a steady growth of volume handledon a quarterly basis. Moreover, this growth continued until the 4th quarter of 2013, when Ukraine faced a change of government and the subsequent military conflict in the East of Ukraine. Therefore, the decision of "HPC-Ukraine" to invest in the construction of the new terminal was reasonable and profitable,but political events of late 2013 have resulted to four straight quarters of the continuously dropping volume handled by "HPC-Ukraine".

The "Brooklyn-Kiev Port" company showed growth in volume handled in 2012, but then in the 4th quarter of 2012 there was a sharp drop, which lasted until the 2nd quarter of 2013. Following this, in the 3rd quarter of 2013, there was a sharp increase in volume withouta further drop until the 3rd quarter of 2014. The volume handled by the "Brooklyn-Kiev Port"terminal suffered lessfrom the political and economic crisis in Ukraine than the volume handledby "HPC-Ukraine".

CTI showed quarterly growth in volume handled in 2012, but in the 4th quarter of 2012 and the 1st quarter of 2013 there was a slight decrease in volume. Until the end of 2013 there was a steady growth of CTI turnover, but throughout 2014 there was a continuous drop in volume handled. It is interesting to note that the turnover of the container terminal in Ilyichevsk  suffered the most from the political and economic crisis in Ukraine.

Maersk is the only carrier which serves the TIS container terminal, and from year to year their volume handled is growing. At the same time quarterly volume handled by the TIS terminal has been growing since the beginning of 2013, albeit with a slight drop throughout 2014.

Comparing the capacity of the terminal and the actual turnover of recent years, it becomes evident that the actual turnover of all terminals decreased in 2014. The TIS terminal was the only exception;its actual turnover has been growing since 2012.

Table 2. The capacity and the actual turnover of container terminals of Ukraine

Terminal	Annualcapacity, TEUper year		Actual turnover, TEU			Utilization rate*
	Nominal	Optimal	2012	2013	2014	2012	2013	2014
HPC (Odessa)	750000	600000	328 906	369 225	263 146	54,82%	61,54%	43,86%
BKP (Odessa)	250000	200000	132996	135479	151384	66,50%	67,74%	75,69%
CTI (Ilyichevsk)	850000	680000	230581	227348	196232	33,91%	33,43%	28,86%
TIS (Yuzhny)	400000	320000	30660	46304	54380	9,58%	14,47%	16,99%
ISFP (Ilyichevsk)	200000	160000	14 355	0	0	8,97%	0,0%	0,0%
TOTAL	2450000	1960 000	737 516	778 356	665 142	37,63%	39,71%	33,94%

From the table above it is clear that the "Brooklyn-Kiev Port" terminal was the closest to the optima lannual capacity, while CTI and TIS have shown very low utilization rates over the past three years, indicating an inefficient use of capacity. Moreover, in 2015 it is expected that the actual turnover of the "Brooklyn-Kiev Port" and CTI terminalswill drop significantly, due to Maersk’s migration to the "HPC-Ukraine" and the Ilyichevsk sea fish port terminal, thus the actual turnover of "HPC-Ukraine" terminal will grow accordingly. The utilization rate of the TIS terminal will also increase as a result of deregulation of THC rates.

As for prospects and forecasts for 2015, the container market of Ukraine will face the following changes: Maersk will move to the "HPC-Ukraine"terminal instead of the "Brooklyn-Kiev Port"terminal, as well as from the CTI terminal to the Ilyichevsk sea fish port terminal. The formation of an Alliance between CMA CGM, CSCL and UASC,will entail a migration of CSCL, UASC, COSCO and YANG MING from the "HPC-Ukraine"terminal to the "Brooklyn-Kiev Port" terminal. PIL will get an opportunity to provide service to Odessa.

The "HPC-Ukraine" terminal has a negative turnover growth predicted for 2015, but the migration of Maersk will allow it to increase its turnover; it is expected that it will handle more than 300,000 TEU per year. At the same time,the loss of a major player like Maersk will result in an inevitable decrease of volume handled bythe "Brooklyn-Kiev Port" and CTI terminals. As Maersk provided about 50% of the volume handled by the "Brooklyn-Kiev Port" terminal, it is now expected that the terminal will not exceed 90,000 TEU in 2015. In 2014 Maersk provided 21% of volume handled by the CTI terminal and given the negative trend, it is expected that in 2015 the CTI terminal will now handle no more than 120,000 TEU. Since 2012,the TIS container terminal has shown annual growth, but from year to year this growth is slowing. Given that Maersk has no plans to reduce ship calls at the TIS terminal in 2015, as well as the positive volume growth trend, it is expected that in 2015 the terminal will surpass 50,000 TEU.In 2015, the Ilyichevsk sea fish port terminal will handle Maersk’s volume and part of MSC’s volume handled by the CTI terminal in 2014, so it is expected that its turnover will be about 50,000 TEU.

Table 3. Actual turnover of container terminals of Ukraine in 2012-2015 F, TEU

Terminal	Actual turnover, TEU
	2012	2013	2014	2015F
HPC (Odessa)	328 906	369 225	263 146	300 000
BKP (Odessa)	132996	135479	151384	90 000
CTI (Ilyichevsk)	230581	227348	196232	120 000
TIS (Yuzhny)	30660	46304	54380	60 000
ISFP (Ilyichevsk)	14 355	0	0	50 000
TOTAL	737 516	778 356	665 142	620 000

Summing up, it should be noted that a few days ago the World Bank downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s decrease of GDP in 2015 from 1% to 2.3%. In 2009-2014 a 1% change in GDP corresponds to 3% change in container turnover in average. Thus, at the end of 2015 the volume of containers handled by terminals of Ukraine is expected to be about 620,000 TEU.

Informall B.G.